Data ethics 101: convey uncertainty and reliable outcomes
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Previous work on conformal inference
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Prediction intervals
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Setting with perfect knowledge
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Formulate quantile estimation as a learning task
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Validity for unseen data?
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Calibrate: how?
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Comparison with other implementations of conformal inference
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Predicting utilization of medical services
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Online methods?
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Adapting conformal to distribution shift
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Connections
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Estimating volatility in the stock market
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Distribution free theory
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Hidden Markov model
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Predicting county level election results
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From tolerance region to PAC-learning
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Learn then test: risk calibration via multiple hypothesis testing
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Example: object detection
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Summary
Description:
Explore cutting-edge techniques in predictive inference with Stanford University's Emmanuel Candes in this 59-minute conference talk from the Alan Turing Institute. Delve into novel calibration methods addressing critical issues in machine learning, including Learn then Test for explicit finite-sample statistical guarantees and adaptive conformal inference for maintaining prediction coverage despite distribution shifts. Discover how these approaches can be applied to various domains, from multi-label classification and instance segmentation to economic forecasting during major world events. Gain insights into the latest advancements in trustworthy artificial intelligence, covering topics such as machine learning accountability, fairness, privacy, and safety. Follow along as Candes discusses data ethics, conformal inference, prediction intervals, and risk calibration, using real-world examples from medical service utilization, stock market volatility estimation, and county-level election result predictions.
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Recent Progress in Predictive Inference - Emmanuel Candes, Stanford University