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Study mode:
on
1
Intro
2
Water
3
Why simpler models
4
Goal of climate modeling
5
Central claims
6
Outline
7
Hessian
8
Fischer information
9
Sloppy models
10
Metric space
11
Why sloppiness
12
Predictive models vs curve fitting
13
Bayesian inference
14
Mutual information
15
Adapting dimensionality
16
Jeffreys prior in dimension 4
17
Jeffreys prior in dimension 5
18
Jeffreys prior in dimension 26
Description:
Explore the concept of rational ignorance in complex mechanistic models through this lecture by Benjamin Machta from Yale University. Delve into the challenges of overfitting in statistical models with numerous parameters and examine why commonly used uninformative priors like Jeffreys prior fail to solve this problem. Discover a novel approach that maximizes expected information to create an optimal prior, avoiding bias introduced by irrelevant parameters. Investigate how this method adapts to model dimensionality and compare it to traditional approaches. Learn about topics such as Hessian matrices, Fisher information, sloppy models, Bayesian inference, and mutual information. Gain insights into the implications of this research for fields like climate modeling and predictive modeling in general.

Rational Ignorance - Optimal Learning from Complex Mechanistic Models

Santa Fe Institute
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