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Intro
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The National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Community Earth System Model (CESM)
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Need for Software Quality Assurance
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Motivation
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Evaluating the difference
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Our new approach: Ensemble Consistency Test
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Ensemble Consistency Test (ECT)
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Creation of and comparison with ensemble
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Quantity ensemble variability
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Hypothesis Testing based on Principal Components
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ECT Procedure
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How wel does CAM ECT work?
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Do we really need year-long runs?
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Counterexample 1: HYDRO-BASEFLOW
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Counterexample 2: RAND
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UF-CAM-ECT and CAM-ECT
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A highly accurate test leads to new challenges...
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First step: identify affected variables
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Next: convert source code to directed graph
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Looking at the statistical details of the ECT.
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The ECT scheme viewed as a series of RVS
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Illustration of estimation bias of eigenvalues
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Estimator and ensemble size effect on false positive rate
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Alternative estimators for different ensemble sizes
Description:
Explore a 45-minute conference talk on ensemble consistency testing for the Community Earth System Model, presented at the Machine Learning for Climate KITP conference. Delve into the challenges of informing society about future climate changes at regional and local scales, and learn how big data and machine learning algorithms are advancing climate science. Discover the Ensemble Consistency Test (ECT) approach for evaluating differences in climate models, including its procedure, effectiveness, and statistical details. Examine counterexamples, challenges in highly accurate testing, and alternative estimators for different ensemble sizes. Gain insights into the intersection of climate modeling, software quality assurance, and statistical analysis in this comprehensive presentation by Dorit Hammerling from the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Contained Chaos - Ensemble Consistency Testing for the Community Earth System Model

Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics
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