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WHEN: 4:00 pm to pm Sunday, 11 December 2022
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Start
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Introduction
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Speaker Introduction
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Chance and chaos: how to predict the unpredictable
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KAAPI WITH KURIOSITY
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The butterfly effect
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Climate modelling and extreme weather prediction
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The deterministic universe, chance and chaos
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Unpredictability
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Example: The fair coin toss
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The perfect coin tosser
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Let's do an experiment with dice!"
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Kneading dough: a simple model for generating randomness
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Step 1: Place test raisins in the dough.
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Step 4: Continue repeating Steps 2 and 3.
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Exponential sensitivity, and the amplification of randomness
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A mathematical theorem
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The grand challenge
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Helpful chaos: Boltzmann's statistical mechanics
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The Boltzmann gas:
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The Lorentz gas
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The Lorentz gas and Brownian motion
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A typical Brownian path in three dimensional space.
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Visibility in a forest
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The Lorentz gas in a crystal
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The distribution of free path lengths
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Underpinning mathematics: ergodic theory and dynamical systems
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Conclusions
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Recommendations for further reading
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Thank you
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Q&A
Description:
Explore the fascinating world of chaos theory and unpredictability in this captivating lecture by Professor Jens Marklof. Delve into the mathematical principles behind chaotic systems, from weather forecasts to political developments. Examine the butterfly effect and its implications for climate modeling and extreme weather prediction. Investigate the concept of determinism versus chance through experiments with coin tosses and dice. Discover how kneading dough serves as a simple model for generating randomness, and learn about exponential sensitivity in chaotic systems. Explore applications in statistical mechanics, including the Boltzmann gas and Lorentz gas models. Gain insights into the mathematics of ergodic theory and dynamical systems. Conclude with practical applications and recommendations for further study in this thought-provoking exploration of predicting the unpredictable.

Chance and Chaos - How to Predict the Unpredictable by Jens Marklof

International Centre for Theoretical Sciences
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