Explore the intricacies of predicting software vulnerability exploitation in this 21-minute conference talk from USENIX Enigma 2019. Delve into research findings from analyzing data across 10 million hosts, uncovering insights on global vulnerability impact and exploitation trends. Learn about the decreasing fraction of exploited vulnerabilities despite their growing discovery rate, and understand why popular vulnerability metrics like CVSS scores poorly correlate with real-world exploits. Discover how combining technical vulnerability characteristics, social media information, and patching rates can create predictive models to assess exploitation risks and even infer zero-day exploits. Gain valuable knowledge on objectively evaluating defensive technologies, data-driven risk assessment for companies, and applications in cyber policymaking and insurance.